Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 1.914371 2.039422 2.171621 2.322318 2.490002 2.671623 2.884249
2025-11-23 1.724623 1.896494 2.087638 2.317910 2.590443 2.906143 3.304691
2025-11-30 1.615628 1.815736 2.046293 2.335342 2.693593 3.130886 3.718025
2025-12-07 1.508604 1.722259 1.974852 2.301097 2.720025 3.253028 4.005909
2025-12-14 1.411019 1.630343 1.894862 2.244618 2.706721 3.315121 4.212454
2025-12-21 1.342492 1.568104 1.845189 2.219588 2.727696 3.419058 4.483344
2025-12-28 1.304772 1.540935 1.836408 2.244736 2.814819 3.618604 4.916369
2026-01-04 1.257616 1.498446 1.804306 2.234854 2.850327 3.744811 5.250704
2026-01-11 1.229813 1.478930 1.800341 2.261749 2.938417 3.955324 5.750777
2026-01-18 1.194475 1.447407 1.778027 2.260527 2.983692 4.102540 6.163909
2026-01-25 1.175893 1.436914 1.783083 2.297697 3.088369 4.353762 6.807330
2026-02-01 1.135366 1.394931 1.742417 2.265279 3.081961 4.419224 7.105912
2026-02-08 1.092342 1.348965 1.695586 2.223220 3.060577 4.462794 7.382229
2026-02-15 1.063982 1.322086 1.674487 2.218557 3.099138 4.615851 7.922168
2026-02-22 1.044125 1.306006 1.667729 2.234814 3.172683 4.839814 8.672355
2026-03-01 1.011435 1.270636 1.631414 2.202833 3.161756 4.903641 9.061426
2026-03-08 0.974808 1.228476 1.583515 2.150050 3.111005 4.884890 9.241543
2026-03-15 0.948636 1.200310 1.555075 2.126642 3.109726 4.963303 9.693709
2026-03-22 0.936895 1.192288 1.555991 2.150161 3.193136 5.222533 10.715491
2026-03-29 0.917104 1.171946 1.537555 2.140920 3.216050 5.358009 11.426418
2026-04-05 0.907263 1.165664 1.539987 2.166065 3.304275 5.645965 12.721167
2026-04-12 0.891325 1.149901 1.527255 2.164923 3.342406 5.827248 13.742316
2026-04-19 0.884884 1.147875 1.535487 2.199657 3.452479 6.191640 15.613051